It's been my perception that Romney has taken a sizable hit over the last few months. A recent poll shows that the President has now moved to a 6 point lead in both Florida and Ohio-Romney simply cannot lose both those states, if he does, he loses, it's that simple.
While Pennsylvania has been sometimes seen as a swing state, the poll now shows the President with a lead that has grown to 11 points-if this represents a trend rather than a blip, it's not a swing state this election cycle.
Now, a new Pew Research poll shows the President with a 10 point lead (51-41). This is after last month's Pew poll showed him with a 7 point lead (50-43).
"A new poll from the Pew Research Center shows one of the biggest national leads for President Obama since the general election campaign began in earnest — a 10 point lead, 51 percent to presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney’s 41 percent. Pew registered a 7 point lead for Obama in their June survey."
"The bump for Obama seems to come from Romney’s stumbling — Pew picked up a downward trend in the former governor’s favorability rating, which has long been a struggle for Romney."
“By a 52% to 37% margin, more voters say they have an unfavorable than favorable view of Mitt Romney,” Pew wrote. “The poll, conducted prior to Romney’s recent overseas trip, represents the sixth consecutive survey over the past nine months in which his image has been in negative territory. While Romney’s personal favorability improved substantially between March and June - as Republican voters rallied behind him after the primary season ended-his image has again slipped over the past month.”
Since 1988, the only Presidential candidates who were upside down on favorability were Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and Bob Dole in 1996 . This is not exactly the group you want to belong to-all of course went in for landslide pummelings.
This confirms a theory of mine that Americans don't elect candidates they don't like to President of the United States. It just doesn't happen.
While the relentless message you hear is that this one will be very, very, very close, I'm skeptical. It's like that movie with Tom Cruise-'You had me at hello.'
My theory is that Romney's had his 'You lost me at hello' moment and can't come back from it, as there have been too many of them. Being clowned in Britain is one such moment, getting booed at the NAACP is another, then there's his campaign aide telling the media to kiss his ass. Or the time he insulted that guy's cookies in the most popular bakery in Pittsburgh, or the time he said he doesn't care about the poor, or the multiple times he said 'If you want free stuff, vote for the other guy' or the fact that he still hasn't released his tax returns... He has a Swiss bank account and one in the Cayman Islands...
Honestly, I could go on all day, but you get the point. He has had dozens upon dozens of moments of 'Shut up, you lost me at hello. You lost me at hello.'
Ironic that Sununu tried to attack the President's American-ness when as Newt Gingrich says, what kind of an American owns a Swiss bank account?